“While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have ALL been
Subramanian, at a event in New Delhi on March 28, had said Indian economy could grow at 8 per cent till 2047, if the country redoubles the good policies
A day after IMF distanced itself from Krishnamurthy Subramanian’s 8% growth projection for India, the former CEA and executive director at the global body hit back in a post, saying the staff at IMF have consistently been inaccurate about India’s growth numbers.
“While India’s growth has been >7%, IMF staff estimates have ALL been
“For FY 23-24, in Nov-22 and Jan-23, IMF staff predicted growth=6.1%. In Apr-23, they lowered it to 5.9%. In Nov-23, they predicted 6.3%. Actual growth, IMO, will be 8%. So, IMF staff’s error margins are huge: 1.9% in Nov-22 & Jan-23 estimates, 2.1% in Apr-23 estimate, and 1.7% in Nov-23 estimates. Similarly, even FY23-24 growth estimates of IMF staff
“The views conveyed …by Subramanian were in his role as India’s representative at the IMF,” Julie Kozack, IMF spokesperson, told reporters in Washington on Friday. She was responding to a question on recent remarks by Subramanian, which is different from the last growth rate projections by the IMF.
Subramanian, at a event in New Delhi on March 28, had said Indian economy could grow at 8 per cent till 2047, if the country redoubles the good policies that it has implemented over the last 10 years and accelerate reforms.
“So, the basic idea is that with the kind of growth that India has registered in the last 10 years, if we can redouble the good policies that we have implemented over the last 10 years and accelerate the reforms, then India can grow at 8 per cent from here on till 2047,” he had said.
The IMF would be updating its World Economic Outlook in the next couple of weeks. “But our growth projections as of January were for medium term growth of 6.5 per cent, and that was a slight upward revision relative to October. Again, we will be presenting the latest forecast in just a couple of weeks,” Kozack said.
